Seminar: Climate Variance and Socio-Economic Decisions – The value of Ice Roads to Canadian Diamond Mines and Native Communities

Please come along to Prof Michael A Goldstein’s seminar, for the Department of Geography and Planning at Macquarie University, on Tuesday 23rd February. Here is the abstract for Prof Goldstein’s talk:

Both Arctic business and native communities rely on ice roads in the Northwest Territories of Canada.  For the road to the diamond mines, I use the business concept of “expected costs” and demonstrate how the interrelated impacts of both trend and variance can be assessed.  Using both 50 years of climate data as well as adapting the Black- Scholes Option Pricing formula, I apply these methods to the question of building ice roads in the Northwest Territories of Canada, where a strong negative (warming) trend is underway. I then discuss the native community ice roads, and examine the meaning, impact, and value of one particular ice road to a Native community.   I then discuss pricing variance using climate modelling to the Californian drought and passage through the Arctic sea ice, and provide a few other options around the globe to demonstrate the broad applicability of this approach. Using this new approach it is possible to generate quantitative and actionable information of practical use, particularly in cases where both the mean state and variance are changing.

Location: Building W6A Room 107, Macquarie University.

Time: 12-1pm, Tuesday 23 February

RSVP: not required – all welcome.

Michael A. Goldstein snow clearing machines

About Prof Goldstein:

Michael A. Goldstein is the Donald P. Babson Chair in Applied Investments and a Professor of Finance at Babson College. He is currently a Visiting Professor at the University of Sydney in the Finance Division and associated with both the Climate Change Research Centre and the Finance Division at UNSW. He was a Principal Investigator on a U.S. National Science Foundation grant to study the effect of seasonality on the Arctic economy. His work “Variability, Predictability, and Risk in the Alaskan Arctic Waters” was presented at the American Meteorological Society meetings. His research focuses on pricing the effects of variance on the drought in California, ice roads in the Canadian Arctic, the value of an ice road to a native Canadian arctic community, shipping and sea ice in the Canadian and Norway/Russian arctic, and issues in the Murray-Darling basin in Australia. For more see and



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